The Lünendonk Study is the definitive benchmark for Germany's security services market — the largest in continental Europe. The 2025 edition, published in October, carries two messages: the market is still growing, but the rules of the game are changing fast.
Germany's top 25 security providers posted 7.5% revenue growth in 2024, reaching a combined €5.4 billion. Half of them are already deploying robotics or digital solutions in live operations. And 86% expect demand for integrated security services to keep rising over the next five years.
For mid-sized guard companies — the ones not on that top-25 list — the question is what these numbers actually mean for daily operations.
The study covers Germany's 50 largest security providers, which together generate €5.9 billion in revenue — 44% of the total market.
Revenue growth:
| Period | Revenue Growth (Top 25) |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 12.2% (one-off effects) |
| 2024 | 7.5% |
| 2025 | 7.1% |
| 2026 (forecast) | 7.5% |
| 2027–2029 (forecast) | avg. 8.5% |
Growth in 2025 is more moderate than the exceptional 2024, but the long-term trajectory points upward. The industry itself forecasts an acceleration to an average 8.5% through the end of the decade.
Staffing:
Headcount grew 2.2% among the top 25 (3.4% industry-wide). The companies analyzed employ 108,000 people — an average of 2,150 per provider. Staff turnover sits at 11.9%, meaning nearly one in eight guards leaves within a year.
For a mid-sized guard company with 200 employees, 11.9% turnover means onboarding roughly 24 new hires per year. How quickly those new guards can run patrols, write DARs, and handle post orders becomes a direct operational question — not an HR abstraction.
70% of providers surveyed say they now offer integrated security services. 86% expect demand to keep rising. But what does "integrated" actually mean?
Lünendonk describes a shift: clients no longer want isolated services — a guard company here, an alarm installer there, a separate reporting provider somewhere else. They want a single contractor taking end-to-end responsibility for personnel, technology, and processes.
The study identifies four technology categories driving this shift:
For security companies that have historically sold billable hours, this is a strategic pivot. Pure manpower is becoming a commodity. Differentiation now requires integrating technology and documentation into the service offering.
The study reveals a clear split: 50% of the top 25 are already running robotics or digital solutions in live operations or pilot projects. The other half haven't started.
What matters more is what clients think about it:
| Client Expectation | Share |
|---|---|
| Expect cost savings through digitalization | 67% |
| Expect more transparency | 52% |
| Accept robotics as an alternative | 29% |
| Actively demand technical solutions | 27% |
67% of clients expect measurable cost savings — not vague promises. And 52% want transparency: the ability to verify what's happening on the ground, in real time.
This is exactly where guard tour software earns its keep. A guard tour system like COREDINATE logs every patrol, every checkpoint scan, and every shift digitally and in real time — precisely the kind of accountability and proof of patrol that clients are now demanding.
The study also captures provider sentiment:
| Segment | Very Optimistic | Well Positioned |
|---|---|---|
| Security technology | 38% | 53% |
| Traditional guarding | 8% | – |
In security technology, 38% are very optimistic and 53% feel well positioned. In traditional guarding — providing guards without a technology layer — only 8% are very optimistic.
The message is clear: companies that combine people with technology see the future positively. Those relying on manpower alone are less confident about what's ahead.
The Lünendonk Study analyzes the industry's largest players. But the trends hit mid-sized security companies just as hard — often harder.
11.9% staff turnover is more damaging for a 50-person operation than for a corporation with 5,000 guards. Every departure costs onboarding time, client continuity, and institutional knowledge. When new guards need to learn patrol routes, checkpoint procedures, and DAR formats from scratch, the speed of that ramp-up directly affects service quality.
Clients expect transparency — even from smaller providers. A facility manager putting out a security contract today asks about digital reporting as standard. Not because they've read the Lünendonk Study, but because their procurement process requires auditable documentation.
The 67% figure is a negotiation reality. When two-thirds of clients expect cost savings through technology, it becomes difficult to be taken seriously while still running paper logbooks and spreadsheet scheduling.
For mid-sized guard companies, the investment in a proper guard tour and reporting system is no longer a future consideration. It's the baseline requirement to remain competitive when bidding for contracts.
The Lünendonk Study 2025 confirms what many in the industry already sense: the market is growing, but the rules are changing. Security companies that integrate technology into their service delivery are optimistic. Those sticking with manpower-only models see the outlook differently.
COREDINATE is a guard tour system with integrated scheduling — built for exactly the demands Lünendonk describes: checkpoint-based patrol verification, a digital logbook, time tracking, shift scheduling, and a client portal for real-time operational transparency.
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